In a previous post, I discussed how the Republican nominee (whoever it is) can defeat Mark Warner. I mentioned that the way to victory was open to both Jim Gilmore and Bob Marshall. However, I humbly submit that Marshall has a far easier path than Gilmore does. Here are my reasons why.
The perceived Gilmore record: In politics, perception is reality, and the perception of Gilmore’s record is just awful. As Riley at Virginia Virtucon notes, Warner’s assertion that Gilmore left hima “deficit” is false. A deficit is a budget deliberately out of balance, which in Virginia is against the law. However, one Governor can leave a shortfall- i.e., an unanticipated drop in revenue – and that is exactly what Gilmore left Warner. Now, I would submit that isn’t Gilmore’s fault: the recession of 2001 had a much longer drag on revenues here in Virginia thanks to 9/11, but no voter will allow Gilmore to use 9/11 to explain state budget problems – even if he were right (which he would be).
With Marshall as the nominee, Gilmore’s record becomes a non-issue. Only Warner’s record comes under scrutiny, in particular the $10 billion in increased spending from the tax-hike budget of 2004 – a budget on which Marshall never voted in favor. I would love to know where the $10 billion went, and I’m guessing most of the voters would, too. If Gilmore asks that question, Warner can deflect it with Gilmore own record. He’d have to answer Marshall.
The Republican base: Mark Warner saw the effect of a demoralized GOP base in 1996, when he first ran for the U.S. Senate. His only hope was that Republicans angry at John Warner’s treatment of Oliver North and Mike Farris would skip the election. It wasn’t enough for Mark to win, but it got him within six points of John (the closest anyone has ever gotten to John Warner since his initial 1978 run). Warner used the lessons from 1996 to skillfully carve up the GOP base against Mark Earley, who was weak on gun rights and economic issues.
Neither Gilmore nor Marshall will provide the gun-rights opening, but Gilmore’s eight-week window on abortion will be millstone with social conservatives – a millstone Marshall will never have to bear. What with John McCain at the top of the ticket, it will be this race that will need to get out the GOP base. Marshall has a better shot at that than Gilmore.
As for the Democratic base, they will have either the first female or the first African-American nominee for President. They will be motivated to the max no matter who the Republican nominee is. The question is, will our base be similarly motivated? It will with Marshall.
Finally, there’s the special session on transportation next month. Gilmore and Warner have all but pretended this doesn’t exist, but Virginians across the state will be watching this to see if the tax -hiking ciphers will stick it to them again. The Bill Howell method (bring back HB3202) will once again bring the GOP base down (and make the party radioactive in Northern Virginia and Hampton Roads), while the Democrats’ insistence on a statewide tax hike will upset voters across the Commonwealth.
Against Gilmore, Warner can just keep quiet and reap the benefits of Howell depressing GOP turnout. Marshall, however, will be seen from Arlington to Abingdon as one of the very few who isn’t willing to force even more tax hikes on ordinary Virginians. His role in getting the unconstitutional regional authorities wiped out in the spring put him on the map in Tidewater. His refusal to support tax increases this summer will make him a hero across the Commonwealth.
Warner knows this, which is why I’m starting to hear (admittedly, third-hand) that Warner is all-but-praying that Gilmore is the nominee. Warner knows how to handle candidates like Gilmore; he is unprepared for Bob Marshall.
Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal
