We also have to remember that Warner’s high numbers are also a reflection of the one race he won (2001); what is nearly lost to history is the unusual role gun rights played in that campaign. For the first (and only) time I can remember, the GOP nominated a wishy-washy candidate on gun rights for Governor (Mark Earley). Warner exploited that weakness, refused to take the traditional gun-control stance Democrats usually take, and managed to keep the National Rifle Association on the sidelines until the last week of the campaign (which was too late to make an impact). That is what opened up rural Virginia to Warner, and opening he seized to defeat Earley.
It is also an opening he will not be able to use no matter which candidate is arrayed against him. Gilmore and Marshall have been back by the NRA before, and they have done nothing since to sour the NRA. Thus, Warner will now find himself up against the NRA-backed candidate from the get-go. I suspect that the door to rural Virginia will be much harder to open this time. So in that respect, this race is even more competitive than it appears.
Unfortunately, that’s not the only unseen dynamic here; there is one other that demands we nominate the right candidate for this election.
Unless I seriously miss my guess, the GOP nominee from President will not be Mike Huckabee. This means the nominee will be someone that pro-life voters don’t necessarily trust – and that’s if they luck out and get Romney or Thompson. It’s more likely to be either McCain or Giuliani, which means we’re in real trouble here. Each of those candidates is on someone’s I-will-never-vote-for-them list, and that’s just among Old Dominion Blog Alliance members. The reaction of the pro-life community as a whole could be devastating to the GOP ticket here – unless there is a statewide pro-life candidate to bring them out of their homes and into the phone banks, out on lit drops, and in front of polling places on election day.
Who is that pro-life candidate? Bob Marshall. His voting record on pre-born children is impeccable. Moreover, he has been one of the leaders keeping the plight of the pre-born front and center, even to the point of going up against abortifacents dressed up as “birth control.”
Just to make sure everyone understands me: I do not know, and can not say, that the pro-life community would sit a Gilmore-Warner election out (although this is hardly encouraging – Washington Post), but they will be a major force for the GOP if Marshall is the nominee.
Yes, I can hear the lefties now, talking about how Marshall will encourage all of them to turnout, too. Spare me. Do they expect us to believe they won’t go that extra mile for the first woman or first African-American president? To ask that question is to answer it. Democrats live and breathe identity politics, and for them, the presidential race is right up their ally.
So, if the Dems will be highly motivated no matter who our Senate nominee is, wouldn’t it make sense to nominate the man who best motivates our base? Of course, it does. That is one of the many reasons why Bob Marshall will do better against Mark Warner than Jim Gimore.
Cross-psoted to the right-wing liberal
