Why the Presidential nominee will need Bob Marshall as our Senate nominee

Earlier tonight (OK, last night, as we’re now past midnight here), I detailed my troubles (and what I believe are the troubles of most Republicans) with the current crop of presidential candidates.  I ended that post as such:

In short, the typical Republican voter will need something extra to be encouraged to vote – and volunteer – for the Republican ticket.  I’ll explain why I think that, and how it impacts Virginia, in later posts.

Well, it’s only going to be one post, but here’s why I think “something extra” is required – and by “something extra,” I mean a better candidate down-ballot: asking Republicans to play defense with their vote doesn’t work.

We tend to forget this lesson, and are thus doomed to relearn it, repeatedly.  Remember 1996, when we were told legions of anti-Clinton voters would put Bob Dole in the White House?  Dole won 41% of the vote.  Two years later, we heard the same nonsense about voters angry at the Lewinksy scandal.  It turned out Republicans were angrier about the party’s weakness on spending issues, and Clinton became the first Democratic president not to lose seats in a mid-term election since 1934.  In 2000, the same logic got the GOP 48% of the vote and a cliff-hanger of an election.  Only when Republicans could vote for something (as in 2002 and 2004) did the party regain its footing (only to lose it again by going back on defense in 2005). 

We saw the same thing here in Virginia.  In 2005, we were all supposed to fall in line behind Jerry Kilgore to stop Tim Kaine.  Kaine beat Kilgore by 6 points.  Two years later, the sam defensive mentality led to the transportation tax hike of 2007 and the loss of our State Senate majority,

Today, every single Republican candidate (save Paul, whose prospects for victory are minuscule) are hoping to use the anti-Clinton wave to win the White House.  The fact that no such wave existed in 1996, 1998, or even 2000 has not deterred them.

The fact remains, however, that Republicans only win when their voters are motivated to vote for their candidates, not merely against their opponents.

This is where our Senate race comes in.

Virginia will be a competitive state this year.  The Democrats will be energized by their nominee (either the first women or the first African-American to be nominated by a major party for president).  We will need similar energy on our side.

Only one candidate can produce that energy: Bob Marshall.

For anti-tax, limited government voters, Bob Marshall offers a 16-year record of fighting tax increases and government spending, to the point of currently suing to eliminate the unconstitutional regional taxes in HB3202.  Jim Gilmore presents an incomplete record on car-tax reduction, a spending increase that was higher in percentage termsthan Mark Warner’s, and absolute silence on HB3202.  If this were 1998, Gilmore may still have been able to motivate and inspire limited government Republicans to walk through walls for him.  However, it is 2008, and the only candidate who can do that is Marshall.

For pro-life voters, Marshall is the ideal.  He is unabashedly pro-life, without exception.  Gilmore, by contrast, has an eight-week “choice” window.  Pro-life voters may support Gilmore in November, but they won’t move heaven and earth to get him elected; only Marshall can inspire them to do that.

For national security voters, the difference is glaring.  Jim Gilmore still hasn’t disavowed his June 2007 op-ed when he came out against the surge.  Marshall has done no such thing.  The folks at National Review have already noticed this from Gilmore, and have refused to support him as a result.  Again, Gilmore will have far more trouble with the “base” on this than Marshall.

Conventional wisdom holds that the Republican perceived as more “moderate” has the better shot at winning the election.  I greatly dispute this in every election  However, in this election, the CW loses all validity.  Nothing we do can keep the Democrats at home on election day, but we can keep angry right-wingers at home by nominating the wrong candidate.  Those who think Mark Warner or Hillary Clinton will “scare” them into voting must not forget that such tactics did not work against Bill Clinton or Tim Kaine.

The Republicans need to vote for a candidate, rather than against the Democrat.  If they don’t have that at the presidential level, it is imperative that they have it at the Senatorial level.  Marshall’s nomination will not only make the Senate seat more winnable, it may be the only way we can assure t Virginia’s electoral votes go to the Republican ticket.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

Bob Marshall at the Spotsylvania GOP Committee

Delegate Marshall drove up from Richmond to speak to my local GOP Committee (Spotsylvania) last night.  I shared my observations over at Rappahannock Red; here’s the relevant excerpt:

He talked about his record in Richmond defendind pre-born life, fighting tax increases, and other issues.  I was struck by his down-to-earth personality and sense of humor (it was the first time I met him); that alone will make him a far more formidable candidate in the general election than even I realized.

I’m quite used to supporting candidates I’ve never met (it’s practically a requirement at the Presidential level), but it always helps to see the fellow up close.  Like I said at RR, Marshall is a charming fellow; he won over the room fairly quickly (best line of the night: “I went to law school for a while; I quit (pause) – I wanted to go to heaven”).

Mark Warner won’t know what hit him.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

We’re up to a half-dozen, and stretching out across the political spectrum

Republitarian is the sixth blogger to join this site, and I would add this brings additional heft for the following reason.  Last year, Republitarian and I crossed swords on the Hanger-Sayre primary battle (for those few who are unaware, he supported Hanger, while I was a Sayre man).  Yet here we are, both supporting Delegate Marshall. I can’t think of a better way to show that Bob Marshall can appeal to all Republicans and right-leaning-independents in Virginia!

Staunton GOP Chair endorses Bob Marshall

Anne Taetzsch, Chair of the Staunton City Republican Party, joined her Augusta counterpart Dr. Kurt Michael on Thursday in support of Delegate Bob Marshall for U.S. Senate:

The United States is at a critical point and there are many tough decisions that our representatives must make. It is my belief that Bob Marshall is an excellent choice to represent us in this time. 

Thank you, Anne!

Republican National Coalition for Life Endorses Bob Marshall

The RNCL describes itself thusly: “Republican National Coalition for Life PAC supports Republican candidates who are pro-life without discrimination and who will work to translate Republican pro-life platform principles into public policy and law.”

Who fit the bill for this dedicated pro-life group?  Why, none other than Bob Marshall.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

One More Blogger 4 Bob

Peter Gibbons (On the Spot – the Spotsylvania GOP blog, although he’s also on Rappahannock Red) joins the merry band of Bob Marshall bloggers.  Welcome to the group, Peter!

Another Blogger for Bob

Eric Martin of Rappahannock Red becomes the latest blogger to support Bob Marshall.

Last year, Eric was a Republican endorsee for the Spotsylvania County School Board.  He will now bring that experience and energy to the Marshall piece of the blogosphere.

Welcome Eric!

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

Augusta GOP Chairman supports Bob Marshall

One of the things I have noticed (it’s hard not to notice) is that most folks in the western part of Virginia are unfamiliar with Delegate Marshall.  This isn’t really a surprise, given that Marshall represents Prince William and Loudoun Counties, and his opposition to HB3202 would make him much more well-known in Hampton Roads than elsewhere in the state.

There are, however, some folks in the west who do know Bob Marshall, including Augusta County Republican Chairman Kurt Michael, who endorsed him yesterday (emphasis added):

. . . each of these men bring with them different talents and strengths. And I believe, at this time in Virginia politics, it is Bob Marshall’s talents that are needed. I will be supporting Bob Marshall for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senator.

Mark Warner can be beaten, but only with the right candidate

That should be the headline that accompanies this Rasmussen poll.  Sadly, it’s not, but that’s OK; Rasmussen polls in all fifty states, and probably hasn’t had time to notice the Virginia political dynamic.  That dynamic screams that Warner is vulnerable.Lest anyone forget, when Warner was in his heyday, he was pulling down approval ratings in the mid-70s.  The Rasmussen poll still has his favorables at 63%, but he can only get 53% against Jim Gilmore (Bob Marshall was not polled).

We also have to remember that Warner’s high numbers are also a reflection of the one race he won (2001); what is nearly lost to history is the unusual role gun rights played in that campaign.  For the first (and only) time I can remember, the GOP nominated a wishy-washy candidate on gun rights for Governor (Mark Earley).  Warner exploited that weakness, refused to take the traditional gun-control stance Democrats usually take, and managed to keep the National Rifle Association on the sidelines until the last week of the campaign (which was too late to make an impact).  That is what opened up rural Virginia to Warner, and opening he seized to defeat Earley.

It is also an opening he will not be able to use no matter which candidate is arrayed against him.  Gilmore and Marshall have been back by the NRA before, and they have done nothing since to sour the NRA.  Thus, Warner will now find himself up against the NRA-backed candidate from the get-go.  I suspect that the door to rural Virginia will be much harder to open this time.  So in that respect, this race is even more competitive than it appears.

Unfortunately, that’s not the only unseen dynamic here; there is one other that demands we nominate the right candidate for this election.

Unless I seriously miss my guess, the GOP nominee from President will not be Mike Huckabee.  This means the nominee will be someone that pro-life voters don’t necessarily trust – and that’s if they luck out and get Romney or Thompson.  It’s more likely to be either McCain or Giuliani, which means we’re in real trouble here.  Each of those candidates is on someone’s I-will-never-vote-for-them list, and that’s just among Old Dominion Blog Alliance members.  The reaction of the pro-life community as a whole could be devastating to the GOP ticket here – unless there is a statewide pro-life candidate to bring them out of their homes and into the phone banks, out on lit drops, and in front of polling places on election day.

Who is that pro-life candidate?  Bob Marshall.  His voting record on pre-born children is impeccable.  Moreover, he has been one of the leaders keeping the plight of the pre-born front and center, even to the point of going up against abortifacents dressed up as “birth control.”

Just to make sure everyone understands me: I do not know, and can not say, that the pro-life community would sit a Gilmore-Warner election out (although this is hardly encouraging – Washington Post), but they will be a major force for the GOP if Marshall is the nominee.

Yes, I can hear the lefties now, talking about how Marshall will encourage all of them to turnout, too.  Spare me.  Do they expect us to believe they won’t go that extra mile for the first woman or first African-American president?  To ask that question is to answer it.  Democrats live and breathe identity politics, and for them, the presidential race is right up their ally.

So, if the Dems will be highly motivated no matter who our Senate nominee is, wouldn’t it make sense to nominate the man who best motivates our base?  Of course, it does.  That is one of the many reasons why Bob Marshall will do better against Mark Warner than Jim Gimore.

Cross-psoted to the right-wing liberal

. . . and the clouds parted as the sun shone throughout the land . . .

Delegate Bob Marshall makes it official.