Gilmore Wins VA GOP Senate Convention- Attendance is Everything Folks!

In the closest race I’ve seen in many years, Gov. Jim Gilmore’s Goliath met his David today.

Jim Gilmore is officially the Republican nominee for the November, 2008 election running opposite of liberal tax hiker Mark Warner.

The convention, held at the Richmond Convention Center, was a “nearly” packed house of approximately 3,500 delegates who had volunteered to attend on behalf of their respective counties and districts.

Just about every major player in Virginia politics, past, present and future, was in attendance including Senator George Allen, Congressman Rob Wittman, Del. Mark Cole, Del. Bill Howell, Sen. Ken Cuccinelli and my good friends of The Jeffersoniad Blog Alliance whose appearance in numbers simply overshadow the “real” press. 

Bloggers had numbers, results, opinions, humor, interviews in audio, video and print, all available in real time to the public whereas the newspapers were still scribbling in little notebooks writing stories you won’t hear until tomorrow sometime! 

TV was noticeably weak in attendance, but there were a few cameras, so you might see a snippet on the boob tube tonight, but I doubt it…

It was GREAT to see and meet a lot of the Virginia blogosphere in person for a change.

The crowd was vociferously in favor of Marshall.  Based on decibel levels alone, I would have thought a 75-25 split was eminent. You already know, it wasn’t.  That was weird.

We were graced by a video made from President George W. Bush who spoke of keeping party unity, taxes low and a few other stock presidential speech items.  It was long and frankly, old rhetoric.

Each county was given a total number of possible delegate votes based on its voting population.  Each GOP committee nominated its delegates to attend the convention.  No committee successfully put forth as many people as the the possible votes they were allotted, so the delegates who signed up basically represented those who didn’t bother to.  Furthermore, those delegates who actually attended the convention got to vote in proportion to the total number of allotted delegate slots.

Some counties had a few hundred possible delegate positions to carry one vote each, but only a few dozen signed up to be delegates and therefore those few dozen voted for the rest.  On the day of the convention, of those few dozen who signed up, only a handful showed up, and thus there were instances where a single attendee’s appearance and single ballot carried the weight of as many as 30 delegates!

Spotsylvania and Stafford, part of the First District, had some of the highest Marshall supporting vote ratios in the county itself but the overall number of district-wide delegate votes was what made the difference, and the Henrico area of the 7th District had some of the highest for Gilmore.

For example, if County ABC had 150 total delegate votes and 100 showed up with 90 voting for Marshall, then Bob has 135 out of 150 votes (each delegate weights as 1.5 votes), and County DEF had 100 possible delegate votes and only 2 people showed up and voted for Gilmore, then 100 votes went to Gilmore.  Thus 2 people carried the weight of 50 votes each in the second county compared to 90 people only weighing 1.5 votes each.

In that example, had ONE extra person showed up in the second county for Marshall, it would have made the vote 66 votes for Gilmore and 33 for Marshall.  Had two shown up, it would be 50-50!

You can see how IMPORTANT ATTENDANCE WAS in this convention!

Bob Barry, a dropped third candidate, received 22 delegate votes from a single district.  These votes would have almost certainly been for Marshall, but were disqualified from being counted, and a re-vote was not authorized but Chairman Hager (who lost badly to Jeff Frederick, our new state GOP chairman.)  This was a small factor in delegate vote losses for Marshall.

Gilmore outspent Marshall 14:1 and got quite the jump start by about nine months since Del. Marshall was prohibited from campaigning and fundraising while the House of Delegates is in session.  This isn’t meant to be an excuse, but it was a factor.

Gilmore’s refusal to change his lifetime of advocating for life itself not beginning until the 8-12 week point in development, thus allowing abortions to occur until that time, will likely never earn him favor with pro-lifers.

He has several other chinks in his armor to overcome that have been aired in this campaign and in his brief presidential bid in 2007. Warner is waiting to exploit these weaknesses and Jim’s virtually broke campaign as of now.  Gilmore spent nearly a million dollars during this year long ramp up campaign and has nearly nothing on hand at this point.  Warner, however, has amassed 3 million dollars and has no opposition to worry about in his party.

Conservatives and core-value loyalists will have to decide between now and November, if Gilmore is “close enough” to conservative to earn their vote or not.  The alternative of course is liberal tax-raiser Mark Warner for six years in the U.S. Senate.  One hopes that will be enough to turn out the vote when there are few to no state or local races to bring out the grassroots.

We must however, remember to re-elect U.S. Congressman Rob Wittman, so do make it a point to vote if he’s your federal congressman!

This is the breakdown of delegate votes per district (not the number of people who voted, but the total weighted votes that were cast):

Thanks to Bearing Drift blog for his dedication and hard work live at the convention and recording these votes!

1st: 643.27-490.73 for Marshall (confirmed)
2nd: 612-345.6 for Gilmore (confirmed)
3rd: 121.83-75.16 for Gilmore (confirmed)- ABOUT SEVEN VOTE DIFFERENCE!
4th: 382.53-319.45 for Marshall (confirmed)- FIVE VOTE DIFFERENCE!
5th: 666.17-419.65 for Gilmore (confirmed)
6th: 530.62-507.47 for Gilmore (confirmed)- TWO TO THREE VOTE DIFFERENCE!
7th: 1035.79-581.52 for Gilmore (confirmed)
8th: 156.96-145.04 for Gilmore (confirmed) — ONE VOTE DIFFERENCE!
9th: 551.78-335.22 for Gilmore (confirmed)
10th: 584.5-160.5 for Marshall (confirmed)
11th: 1137-577 Marshall (confirmed)

After the announcement of Jim Gilmore’s win, a pre-made video diary of Jim’s life was played on the big screens.  It was LONG to say the least and its audio was like that of a 7th grade science class video on the forming of a star. “Wake me when it’s over”, I told my wife.

A very nice, and again very LONG video honoring Jo Ann Davis’ memory was aired having been introduced by her successor Rob Wittman.

Note to whomever hired this media company- DUMP THEM.  The videos aren’t interesting and they are very old fashioned. I think the soundtrack was from the 84 Olympics! You will never win the hearts and minds of young people with this type of video style.  It’s more interesting to watch grass grow. Whomever you get to do future videos- make them SHORTER also!  Two words: “MTV Generation”.

Bob Marshall shook Jim Gilmore’s hand and congratulated him, then took the stage and told us to “beat Mark Warner” at the end of a brief speech and thanking his family, staff and hundreds of grassroots volunteers.  They really did a great job with the time and resources they had, and this effort will not go unnoticed. In fact, it will be sorely missed by future campaigns of candidates with lesser qualities and qualifications.

Bob Marshall is still serving us as a Virginia delegate from Prince William County.  He brought us a 7-0 win in a lawsuit that challenged HB3202 (abusive driver fees and unelected tax hiking authority), the Marriage Amendment, and many other success stories during his 17 year (so far) service to Virginia’s House of Delegates.

Thank you Bob for all you’ve done for the party, Virginia and the pre-born.  Your principled leadership, accomplishements and steadfast loyalty and understanding of the U.S. and Virginia Constitutions are now legendary. 

You’re a patriot in every sense of the word.

You didn’t lose today, we, as voting self-proclaimed conservatives, let you down. I’m personally very sorry for that.

… Gilmore wins: 5,222.73 to 5,156.97

ONE SMALL FAMILY’S VOTES would have made the difference in a Marshall Victory.  Did you show up?

We must nominate Bob Marshall

Tomorrow morning, I will drive down to Richmond to participate in the Virginia Republican convention.  It will be my first in fourteen years, and I’m looking forward to see old friends, including many in the blogosphere.

For those readers who will join me, but are still unsure as for whom they will vote, I will offer one more post on behalf on my choices: Bob Marshall for Senate and Jeff Frederick for Party Chairman.

I’ll start with the Senate race.

Marshall is the only candidate with legislative experience: He has been a legislator for seventeen years, which means he knows how to get good legislation through and - far more importantly - how to stop bad legislation cold.  No one else in the race (in either party) has that, and given the likely reduced minority of the Senate Republican caucus, we need someone who will know how to maneuver the legislative labyrinth on Day One.

Marshall is the candidate with the consistent position on Iraq: He has held true to his position and refused to abandon the war.  He has called for greater Iraai participation in their own liberation, and recent events have shown (in Basra, Baghdad, and Mosul) that the Iraqis are doing so, but only because they know the United States will not abandon them.  Only Bob Marshall has steadfastly refused to throw the President and the Iraqi people under the bus.

Marshall is the better candidate on taxes and spending: It takes quite an effort to be better on these issues than Jim Gilmore, but Marshall has pulled it off.  Gilmore is best known for the last tax revolt of the 20th Century, but Marshall is best known for leading the first tax revolt of the 21st Century.  Given the fact that these issues will once again be front-and-center during the special session this summer, Marshall will be able to endear himself to taxpayers and independents (since both partiy establishments prefer tax hikes) in a way no one else can.

Marshall is the only candidate who opposes amnesty; that’s why Tom Tancredo endorsed him.

Marshall has won in Northern Virginia: Since 1991 (the first year Marshall ran for Delegate in Prince William County), no Republican has won more elections in Northern Virginia than Bob Marshall (although Tom Davis and Frank Wolf have won more often if we include the 1980s).  He has been elected in re-elected in good Republican years (1991, 1993, 1997, 1999, and 2001), iffy ones (1995 and 2003), and downright awful ones (2005 and 2007).  Voters up there know him already, and those who admire him won’t be swayed by whatever the Democrats try to throw at him.

Marshall is the pro-life candidate: As much as I have insisted the GOP can’t win elections with only social conservatives, they can’t win without them either.  Marshall appeals to the base in a way no one else can - something vitally important in a year when said base needs motivation - badly.

All of these reasons also add up to one more: Marshall is the only candidate who can beat Mark Warner.  Will it be easy?  Heck no, but it will be possible - and much more possible than conventional wisdom holds (remember, that would be the same conventional wisdom that gave Marshall no chance at being nominated).

National Review publisher backs Bob Marshall (UPDATED)

Jack Fowler, publisher of National Review, had this to say about our little Senate race in a Comment on Jim Bowden’s blog:

I am the publisher of National Review, so I believe I have some conservative credentials. And a long time ago I was a member of the Spotsylvania Republican Party.

That said, I support Bob Marshall as THE conservative candidate, and I have put my money where my mouth is. Go Bob!

Indeed, the record shows he gave $250 to Bob’s campaign.  Many thanks, Jack!

UPDATE: Here’s what Fowler said on NRO’s Corner Blog:

Former Governor Jim Gilmore and State Delegate Bob Marshall battle it out at the state GOP convention in Richmond – the winner gets to take on Dem Mark Warner to replace U.S. Senator John Warner. Gilmore is in the role of Goliath, but Underdog Bob is pretty accomplished with the political sling and the policy rock. He’s principled, pro-life, and populist (while Tom Davis and his brand of Republicans have been sucking wind in northern Va., the election day numbers for Bob, who represents Manassas, have been growing annually). He’s also a very deft legislator / politician. F’reggzample: from Day One he fought the crazy, voter-detested “Abusive Driver” tax legislation, and after it passed (over his diligent efforts), Bob led the legal fight to kill it (the VA Supreme Court declared the scheme unconstitutional this February).

What’s the support of National Review’s publisher worth? Yes, a club soda on an NR cruise. But whatever its worth, I hope it helps: I’m backing Bob Marshall, and I hope to heck he wins tomorrow and in November to become the Commonwealth’s next senator.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

Gilmore does his Hillary “inevitability” impression

in an interview at the Washington Times earlier this month, apparently:

…”I think I’ll be the nominee of the party, I don’t think that that’s gonna be an issue,” Mr. Gilmore told editors and reporters at The Washington Times earlier this month. “But we have to get our people to the convention and make sure that they’re there, and that they’re voting. But we see no indication that I won’t be the nominee.”…

Keep telling yourself that, Gov. Gilmore.

National Security is Gilmore’s issue?

The Gilmore Bloggers are back to insisting that their guy is the best choice because of national security (SWAC Girl/Bloggers 4 Jim Gilmore):

National security is my #1 concern in any election … and Jim Gilmore is the only choice in the U.S. Senate race because of his strong national security background.

Now, SWAC Girl is one of the leading good guys in the Augusta County War, and we both agree on the best choice for RPV Chairman, but I have to part company with her on this.

I must bring up once more Gilmore’s Washington Post op-ed from eleven months ago on Iraq (just as the “surge” deployment was being completed).  I ask all of you, dear readers, to read the whole thing - every single word. 

He claims the President’s policies “fostered an environment for a Shiite-Sunni civil war,” without ever once mentioning the infiltration of Iraq by Iran, something which was obvious even then and getting many to rethink the “civil war” nonsense.  The plays political chameleon, sanctimoniously claiming to oppose the Democrats even as he throws the President under the bus and calls for a “third way.”

Nearly everything afterwards is akin to this sort of hedge, supposedly supporting the President’s aims while call on him to reduce the number of troops that were making those aims achievable, until the end, when he offers the coup de grace.

American interests come down to protection of our national security, protection of Israel’s right to exist, and averting, if possible, a general war in the Middle East, nuclear or otherwise. Our present conduct in Iraq distracts from or is detrimental to those goals. I urge you to refocus American policy toward Iraq to further these strategic goals. (emphasis added)

Remember that sentence; you’re likely to hear it from every Democrat in Virginia - demanding to know if Gilmore still believes this - between now and November.

Bob Marshall may not have led a task force, but he didn’t go wobbly on the war either.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

Jim Gilmore Caught on Tape Saying OK to Kill 8 Week Old Babies

The smoking gun to Jim Gilmore’s “I’m a pro-life guy, I always have been” stump speech he gives.

The 2 minute segment about abortion is here, cut for brevity and repeated for effect:
(Note the nervous laugh when he mentions the North American Union… “absurd” he says. That’s a different topic though.)

Recorded April 26, 2008 at the 5th District Convention.  Thanks to Bloggers for Gilmore for bringing this up and linking to it!

LISTEN HERE 2:00
(this 12 minute speech is available here: unedited.)

• If being Pro-baby from conception is your position on the abortion issue, then Marshall is your man. 
• If you think killing babies up to EIGHT WEEKS OLD is okay- then Jim Gilmore is your man.

 

Cross-posted on RappahannockRed.com

Gilmore’s “Just Words” Speech

LISTEN HERE 2:00 min MP3
(edited for more inaccuracy, brevity and pure entertainment)

You decide which parts he said without editing. Your first clue is that it’s not always the parts you think! 

 

Yes, this post is for comedic relief.  The recording was rearranged for fun.

Also posted at RappahannockRed.com

 

When James Young and Greg L can agree on something . . .

. . . it is a very big deal.

Well, it turns out both bloggers - rivals within Prince William County for years - are supporting Bob Marshall for Senate.

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

The Gilmore blogs flail desperately

One can tell the nature of a campaign by how it’s supporters are behaving, and the race for the Republican nomination for U.S. Senate is no different.

While Marshall bloggers (such as Shaun Kenney) are seeing the continued strength of our candidate, the Gilmore side is full of denial and innuendo.  Truth be told, it saddens me to see this, since the bloggers in question (Mason Conservative, Spank That Donkey, and Spark It Up!) and I agree on the other major race in the GOP (we all support Frederick for Chairman).

First up, Chris Beer over at MC, who insists that Gilmore’s position on illegal immigration is not de facto amnesty.  He cites a Gilmore for President press release in opposition to the President’s deservedly-dead-and-buried “immigration reform” plan.  That’s hardly an indication of Gilmore’s view (John Podhoretz, who is far more open about his support for amnesty, also opposed the Bush plan).  In fact, Chris completely ignores Gilmore’s support for temporary work visas for illegals - if that’s not amnesty, I don’t know what is.

Chris Green (better known as Spank That Donkey) goes so far as to politicize Memorial Day in a desperate attempt to go after Marshall’s plan to move American troops from Germany to the border with Mexico.  Yet Chris refuses to acknowledge that Germany hasn’t been a front-line state in nearly a decade.

Finally, there’s Carl Kilo (Spark It Up!) who resorts to bring back the old “Love Canal” reference (with complete ignorance about the source of that metaphor), and when he’s not imitating the left in such a way, he’s spreading around rumors by Vince (TC) of Marshall-Warner collusion.  Greg L (Black Velvet Bruce Li) put it best in the comments to TC’s nonsense:

Ridiculous. Marshall despises Warner’s policies. Besides that, the Marshall folks believe they’re going to win the convention (with good reason), so there’s no point to trying to defeat a Gilmore candidacy that isn’t going to exist come Saturday evening.

Here we get to the crux of the problem.  Based on this barrage, I can only conclude that Gilmore is not just losing - he and his supporters know he’s losing.  Thus, it’s everything-but-the-kitchen-sink time.

Still, none of this upsets me (or any other Marshall backer).  After all, the general election campaign will be a rough-and-tumble affair, and it’s best we thicken the skin as soon as possible.  In fact, that’s the entire purpose of a vigorous nomination campaign; nice to see the Gilmore people are finally understanding that (well, sort of).

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal

A Gilmore blogger switches (UPDATED)

The Northern Virginia Conservative has a change of heart (UPDATE - and now he’s a B4B!!):

A few months ago, I endorsed Jim Gilmore’s Senate candidacy on this blog. This campaign has shown me that he is NOT the man for the job. He is a classic glad-handing establishment politician. The Republican party, particularly here in the Old Dominion, is at a crisis point in terms of not only electoral success, but in terms of its identity. We have lost our way very, very badly the past few years by pandering to a very loud, very boorish social conservative minority, while at the same time making a Faustian bargain with people who are anything but conservative for the sake of winning. The worst part is that we keep losing despite that.

It’s time for a change. Bob Marshall actually took the time to call me personally a week or two ago, and spent half an hour making a powerful case for his candidacy. I part ways with him on some social issues, but he is absolutely right on on just about everything else from fiscal issues to border security and immigration. He does not ever compromise his fundamental principles. It’s just not close.

Bob Marshall for Senate. I plan to support him at the convention next week. Join me.

That you NoVaCon!

Cross-posted to the right-wing liberal